Investor overview · October 2026
Know which of your paid commissions could still be clawed back — and for how long
Earnward is a product in development for Independent International Education and Student Visa Agents.
The problem
Independent International Education and Student Visa Agents
For independent international education and student visa agents, when most agreements say nothing about how long after payment a college can come back for the money.
- Australia's public universities alone disclosed over $530 million in education agent commissions in a single year, paid out well before a visa is even decided.
- Most agent agreements cover a clawback in one sentence — no time window, no pro-rating, no mechanism for how long the exposure actually lasts.
- The primary student visa grant rate fell to 75.5% in August 2026, the lowest since 2006/07, so a rising share of paid placements never commence at all.
In their own words
Real quotes from the people who have this problem
In most agent agreements it's one sentence: no window, no pro-rating, no mechanism.
The student visa grant rate for primary applicants dipped to 75.5% in August 2026, the lowest award rate since 2006/07.
The evidence
Researched before anything is built
How it scores
Based on 5 direct quotes from 3 independent public sites, each recorded with its source. Scores are 1–5, rated from that evidence.
Why now
What’s changed
- 01
The primary student visa grant rate fell to 75.5% in August 2026, the lowest since 2006/07, directly increasing how often a paid placement ends in a no-show or late unwind. Industry coverage ↗
- 02
New restrictions on commissions for onshore student transfers took effect in 2026, adding a sixth live regulatory change on top of the five existing clawback triggers agents already have to track.
The product
Earnward
Earnward is a placement-level tracker for exactly this exposure. Log each placement once — college, enrolment date, commission amount — and Earnward tracks it against the known clawback triggers (no-show, early exit, late unwind, onshore transfer, provider default) so you can see, at a glance, exactly how much commission is still exposed and why, instead of finding out only when an invoice arrives.
- 01
Log each placement once — the college, the enrolment date, and the commission amount.
- 02
Earnward tracks it against the five known clawback triggers (no-show, early exit, late unwind, onshore transfer, provider default) using the dates and terms in that college's agreement.
- 03
See at a glance how much commission is still exposed, and exactly why, instead of discovering it when an invoice lands.
Market size
TAM, SAM and SOM
- TAMTotal market
- A$1.37M a yearAn assumed 6,000 independent Australian education agents (a working estimate given commissions of over A$530m a year are being split across a large, fragmented agent base) at A$19/month each (A$228/year). Industry analysis
- SAMServiceable market
- A$548,000 a yearAbout 40% of that population: smaller agencies without an in-house finance system already tracking this internally.
- SOMObtainable in 3 years
- A$16,440 a year3% of that serviceable population subscribing within three years.
The 6,000-agent estimate, the 40% small-agency share, the A$19/month price and the 3% adoption share are all assumptions, not validated figures. No published count of Australian-focused independent education agents was found.
Competition
What they use today, and where it falls short
| Today’s option | Tracks exposure against the real clawback triggers | Flags agreements with no stated deadline | Built for one agent's own placement book | Shows exposure before an invoice arrives, not after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College and agent payment platformsBuilt for the college's side of the payment flow first; not a simple placement-by-placement exposure view built for a single agent's own book. | Partly | No | Partly | Yes |
| A spreadsheet of placementsDoesn't know the specific clawback triggers or flag that an agreement has no stated deadline until someone goes looking for it. | No | Yes | Yes | No |
| Waiting for the college's invoiceBy definition tells the agent after the money is already being taken back, not before. | No | Yes | Yes | No |
| EEarnwardis built around the specific clawback triggers and the missing-deadline problem the industry's own analysis describes, for a single agent's own placement book, rather than a college-side payment platform. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Business model
Flat monthly subscription per agent
Working price, not yet validated — a small fraction of a single mid-range course's first-year commission.
A year of Earnward costs a fraction of one clawed-back placement
Earnward won't stop a clawback happening, but shows how little it has to save to be worth it. Industry analysis
Go to market
How we reach them
- NowThe founding-access page is live, with a Google search ad campaign built around education agent commission and clawback searches.
- NextEducation agent associations and forums, where visa refusal rates and commission terms are already a constant topic.
- LaterA clause-review add-on for agents who want their college agreements checked before signing, not just tracked afterwards.
Where we are
Validating demand before building
- Problem researchReal complaints collected from public sources and scored
- Demand test · nowFounding-member applications open at earnward.thinksimple.app, with a targeted search ad campaign built for it
- BuildOnly if the demand test shows people will sign up
Signup numbers will be shared here once there are enough to mean something.
Get in touch
Interested in backing Earnward?
We’re happy to talk through the research, the demand test and the plan.
For information only. This is not an offer of securities or financial advice. Earnward is in development; nothing described here is available yet. Market figures and charts are estimates built from the sources shown.